Few company reports move a share price as hard as Tesla's. In July its stock fell almost 15% in a single day after the results. The market then spent three months arguing about whether its heavy AI spending will pay off.
This time much of the car story is already known. Tesla published its delivery numbers on October 2, so Wednesday's report is about profit, cash and the businesses beyond cars. Outside the Americas, the results land late on Wednesday evening or early on Thursday, depending on where you are.
There is a crypto angle too, and it sits inside the numbers. Tesla held more than 11,000 bitcoin and a stake in SpaceX at the end of June, and both are valued at market prices each quarter. So the July to September moves in bitcoin and SpaceX shares feed into Tesla's reported net income.
When does Tesla report Q3 2026 earnings?
Tesla reports its third-quarter 2026 results after the US market closes on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, and holds a live question-and-answer webcast at 5.30PM ET. That is 9.30PM UTC, late evening in most of Europe and early Thursday across Asia and Australia. The results and the webcast are both posted on Tesla's investor relations site (source: Tesla, October 2, 2026).
Tesla issues a short advisory with a link to its quarterly update letter, and the letter carries the numbers. Last quarter, the filing with those results reached the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) at 4.35PM ET, about 35 minutes after the close (source: SEC EDGAR, Tesla Q2 2026 filing). Across the last four reports, the filing arrived between 4.06PM and 4.35PM ET, or 8.06PM to 8.35PM UTC (source: SEC EDGAR, Tesla filings). A recording of the webcast goes up about two hours after it ends (source: Tesla, October 2, 2026), and the weekly earnings roundup covers Meta, IBM and the other reports landing the same evening.
What Tesla already told the market
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, up 1.3% from the second quarter but 2.1% below the same quarter of 2025, and it deployed 13.7 GWh of energy storage (source: Tesla, October 2, 2026). It also built fewer cars than it delivered, about 22,000 fewer, which suggests it sold down some of its stock of finished vehicles.
Those numbers have already been judged once. Before each delivery report, Tesla publishes its own average of analysts' forecasts. This time it pointed to 461,974 cars and 15.9 GWh of storage (source: Tesla North, September 29, 2026). Cars beat that figure comfortably, while storage fell short. The stock rose about 5% on the day (source: CNBC, October 2, 2026), and BloFin's TSLAUSDT Perpetual gained 4.6% over the same 24 hours.
Measure | Q3 2025 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
Vehicles delivered | 497,099 | 480,126 | 486,532 |
Vehicles produced | 447,450 | 451,758 | 464,391 |
Energy storage deployed | 12.5 GWh | 13.5 GWh | 13.7 GWh |
The second-quarter and year-earlier figures come from Tesla's earlier delivery reports (source: Tesla, July 2, 2026) (source: Tesla, October 2, 2025). Tesla's earnings and delivery numbers explained covers how the two reports fit together each quarter.
Tesla Q3 earnings preview: What analysts expect
Most earnings previews expect Tesla's profit to fall from a year earlier, even though it sold nearly as many cars. The Zacks consensus is adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.43, down 14% from $0.50, on revenue of $27.79 billion, down 1.1% (source: Zacks via Yahoo Finance, October 16, 2026).
Analysts polled by LSEG expect a similar drop, about 14.5% on EPS and close to 1% on revenue (source: CNBC, October 18, 2026).
The forecasts have been moving down. The Zacks EPS figure fell 9.4% over the 30 days to October 16. Wolfe Research also expects earnings below consensus in what it calls a tough quarter for car stocks (source: CNBC, October 18, 2026). Tesla has missed analysts' EPS estimates in two of its last four quarters, according to Bespoke (source: CNBC, October 18, 2026).
Measure | Q3 2025 actual | Q2 2026 actual | Q3 2026 forecast (Zacks) |
|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EPS | $0.50 | $0.33 | $0.43 |
Revenue | $28.10 billion | $28.24 billion | $27.79 billion |
The actual figures come from Tesla's own update letters (source: Tesla, Q2 2026 update). Tesla gives no numeric delivery or earnings forecast, so its July letter is the closest thing to guidance. It said deliveries depend on demand and on how many cars it keeps for its own robotaxi fleet. It also expects AI, software and fleet profits to grow alongside hardware over time.
What will move Tesla stock on Wednesday
The headline EPS figure may matter less than usual, because the July sell-off was about cash and spending as much as profit. Five things are likely to drive the reaction, and the answers mostly arrive in the update letter and on the call.
Margins and regulatory credits
Tesla's gross margin was 16.8% in the second quarter, below the 19.4% analysts expected (source: CNBC, July 22, 2026). Its operating margin was just 1.4%, and Tesla blamed higher operating costs from AI research and stock-based pay, lower selling prices, lower regulatory credit revenue and warranty costs on some energy products (source: Tesla, Q2 2026 update). Regulatory credits, which other carmakers buy from Tesla to meet emissions rules, brought in only $146 million last quarter. The Zacks consensus expects about $240 million this time (source: Zacks via Yahoo Finance, October 16, 2026).
Cash flow and spending
Free cash flow was negative $1.09 billion in the second quarter, after capital spending of $5.79 billion (source: Tesla, Q2 2026 update). Tesla expects to spend more than $25 billion on capital projects in 2026, driven largely by its AI work, including computing and data centers (source: Tesla, Q2 2026 10-Q). On September 29 it also signed a $20 billion three-year term loan facility and $10 billion of credit lines (source: Tesla, September 29, 2026). How much of that it has drawn, and whether cash flow turned positive, will be read closely.
Robotaxi and Cybercab
Tesla launched its Cybercab in Austin on September 3, and the stock fell about 6% the next day. RBC said Tesla left key questions on pricing, production and approvals open. The US road safety regulator, NHTSA, also opened an audit query into how Tesla certified the vehicle (source: CNBC, September 4, 2026). Any news on rides, cities and output is likely to matter more than the quarter's car margin. Tesla's robotaxi and Cybercab explained covers the background.
Energy storage
Energy storage revenue reached $3.14 billion in the second quarter, and Tesla says its Megapack 3 is on schedule for production in 2026 (source: Tesla, Q2 2026 update). The third quarter's 13.7 GWh was up from 13.5 GWh, but it missed Tesla's own consensus by more than 2 GWh. The letter's comments on demand and costs will be watched. Tesla's energy business explained shows how big the business has become.
Optimus, AI computing, SpaceX and the Roadster
Tesla said in July that it is installing its first Optimus robot production lines and that it more than doubled its computing capacity in Texas in the first half (source: Tesla, Q2 2026 update). Talk of a Tesla and SpaceX combination has also grown, and Wolfe named a possible merger among the potential positives (source: CNBC, October 18, 2026). Nothing has been announced or filed, so treat it as speculation until either company says otherwise. Tesla also showed its next Roadster on October 15, with thrusters that let it jump and flip. It gave no price and no firm production date, only an offhand "2028, actually" from chief executive Elon Musk, so the car will not show up in this quarter's numbers (source: Electrek, October 15, 2026).
Bitcoin and SpaceX in Tesla's Q3 numbers
Tesla held 11,509 bitcoin at the end of June, bought for $386 million and making up most of its $674 million of digital assets. It also held a SpaceX stake bought for $2 billion in March and worth $3.01 billion (source: Tesla, Q2 2026 10-Q).
Tesla marks both to market every quarter, so their gains and losses hit its net income under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Its adjusted EPS, the figure the $0.43 consensus measures, leaves them out.
On BloFin, the two moved in opposite directions this quarter. Between 4PM ET on June 30 and 4PM ET on September 30, the BTCUSDT Perpetual rose 42.1%, from about $58,800 to $83,600, while the SPCXUSDT Perpetual fell 11.4%. As a rough guide, and assuming Tesla's holdings did not change, those prices would add about $285 million to the bitcoin holding and take about $340 million off the SpaceX stake.
Tesla's own figures may differ. Its June valuation took $238 million off the SpaceX stake for regulatory restrictions that expired in September, which could offset much of the price fall. The shares also stay under sale restrictions from the initial public offering until December (source: Tesla, Q2 2026 10-Q). For a crypto trader, a strong bitcoin quarter lifts Tesla's net income, and that line in the letter is where the two markets meet. How Tesla stock and bitcoin move together looks at the link between the two prices.
How Tesla stock moved after its last four reports
Tesla's stock has fallen after three of its last four reports, and the July drop was more than twice what the options market expected. Before that report, options were pricing a move of about 5.8% (source: CNBC, July 21, 2026), and the stock fell 14.5%.
Report | Tesla shares, next session (Nasdaq) | BloFin TSLAUSDT, 24 hours | Bitcoin, same 24 hours |
|---|---|---|---|
Q3 2025, October 22, 2025 | +2.3% | Not yet listed | +2.2% |
Q4 2025, January 28, 2026 | −3.5% | −3.5% | −5.4% |
Q1 2026, April 22, 2026 | −3.6% | −3.5% | −1.4% |
Q2 2026, July 22, 2026 | −14.5% | −14.6% | −1.6% |
Nasdaq moves are close-to-close from Yahoo Finance (source: Yahoo Finance, Tesla price history), and BloFin's run from 4PM ET on the report day to 4PM ET the next day. BloFin listed the TSLAUSDT Perpetual on January 28, 2026, so it has no figure for the October 2025 report.
This time, options data pointed to a move of about 5.1% on October 14 (source: Investing.com, October 14, 2026) and about 7.5% on October 16 (source: TipRanks, October 16, 2026). Those figures change daily and say nothing about direction. July showed the real move can be far larger.
Trading Tesla's report on BloFin
BloFin's TradFi markets offer two ways to hold Tesla through the report: the TSLAUSDT Perpetual, with up to 20x leverage, and tokenized Tesla on the TSLAX/USDT Spot market. Copy trading also covers the perpetual. The difference matters on report night. TSLAX trades 24 hours a day on weekdays (source: BloFin, xStocks risk disclosure), so it stays open through Wednesday night, while the perpetual follows US hours.
The perpetual follows US regular hours, 9.30AM to 4PM ET. Outside them, you may only be able to close or cut a position, not open one (source: BloFin, stock futures trading hours). Tesla reports after the close, so the first reaction happens while new perpetual positions may be blocked. TSLAX trading hours explains how thinner trading in quiet hours can widen TSLAX's spreads.
Size any position held through the report for a July-sized move. Say you hold a 3,000 USDT long on the Tesla perpetual at 5x leverage, backed by 600 USDT of margin. A repeat of July's 14.6% fall would cost about 438 USDT by the next US close, at 4PM ET on Thursday. That is nearly three quarters of your margin. Trading Tesla around earnings and deliveries covers when stepping aside is the better plan.
Looking to trade Tesla? To get started, you'll need to first create a BloFin account, fund your account with cryptocurrency, and navigate to the TSLAX/USDT Spot or TSLAUSDT Perpetual page, or browse the lead traders you can copy on BloFin. The SPCXUSDT and BTCUSDT Perpetuals follow the two assets inside Tesla's numbers.
Frequently asked questions
What time will Tesla earnings come out?
Tesla's results usually land within 40 minutes of the 4PM ET close on Wednesday, October 21, and the webcast starts at 5.30PM ET. That is 8PM to 8.40PM UTC for the results and 9.30PM UTC for the webcast, late evening in Europe and early Thursday morning across Asia and Australia.
Is Tesla expected to have good earnings?
Analysts expect weaker earnings than a year ago, and Zacks rates the stock a Sell going into the report. The bar has been hard to clear lately: last quarter Tesla earned an adjusted 33 cents a share against the 51 cents analysts polled by LSEG expected (source: CNBC, July 22, 2026). Whether the results count as good will depend on margins, cash flow and the robotaxi update as much as on EPS.
Does Tesla still own bitcoin?
Tesla still held 11,509 bitcoin at the end of June 2026, the same number it reported at the end of 2025, according to its quarterly filing. Its third-quarter filing, due after Wednesday's report, will show whether that changed between July and September.
When is Tesla's 2026 annual meeting?
Tesla had not set a date for its 2026 annual shareholder meeting as of its last filings. Its annual report amendment in April said the board had not yet chosen one (source: Tesla, 10-K/A). Electrek noted in late September that no proxy had been filed (source: Electrek, September 29, 2026).
When are Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries and results due?
Tesla has not announced the date yet. It reported its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 28, 2026, after the close, a date it gave in its January 2 delivery report. If it follows the same pattern, the next report would come in late January 2027, with the date likely confirmed alongside early-January delivery figures.
Researched and written by the BloFin Academy editorial team with AI-assisted drafting. All facts independently verified. Sources include Tesla's SEC filings and update letters, Tesla's compiled delivery consensus, Zacks, LSEG and Bespoke via CNBC, CNBC, Investing.com, TipRanks, Electrek, Yahoo Finance and BloFin, current as of October 19, 2026.
Nothing in this article constitutes financial advice, and nothing in it is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold Tesla shares, TSLAX, the TSLAUSDT Perpetual or any crypto asset. Tesla reports after the US close, when the stock perpetual may be limited to reduce-only orders, and the stock has moved as much as 14.5% in a day after recent reports. A leveraged position can be liquidated and lose all the margin behind it, and a stop-loss can fill well past its price on a gap. BloFin services are not available in restricted locations, including the United States. Past performance does not indicate future results. Do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before you trade on BloFin.