If most of your savings sit in crypto, a single bad weekend can take a large bite out of everything you own at once. Many crypto holders respond by looking at big technology shares, on the idea that a company with real sales and profits should follow a path of its own while coins swing.
The trouble is that the evidence points both ways. Price charts of tech shares and coins often look like twins, and headlines speak of tight links between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq. Yet on plenty of days a tech share climbs while Bitcoin falls. Which picture holds depends on how you measure it and over which weeks.
Investors settle the question with correlation, a score from minus one to one that compares how two assets move from day to day. Measured on daily changes over a stated window, it shows how often the two rise and fall together, and whether that link holds steady or keeps shifting.
Crypto holders often ask about Meta, whose apps include Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, and BloFin lets you hold it in the same account as your coins. Its token, METAX, can be bought with USDT through METAX/USDT Spot, and the METAUSDT Perpetual lets you take a leveraged position on Meta's price going up or down.
What is the correlation between Meta stock and Bitcoin?
Meta stock's correlation with Bitcoin was 0.19 over the year to October 16, 2026, measured on daily price changes. That is a weak positive link: the two moved the same way on a little under six days in ten, and the size of one day's move said little about the other. Over the 21 sessions to that date it jumped to 0.51.
The score changes with the window you pick, which is why quoted figures disagree so often. Each reading uses daily closing prices on Yahoo Finance for Meta (source: Yahoo Finance META history) and Bitcoin (source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD history), up to Friday, October 16, 2026.
Window to October 16, 2026 | Sessions | Meta and Bitcoin correlation | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
30 days | 21 | 0.51 | moderate, and the highest since April 2026 |
90 days | 63 | 0.21 | weak |
1 year | 251 | 0.19 | weak |
5 years | 1,255 | 0.24 | weak |
Each Nasdaq trading day is paired with Bitcoin's close for the same date in UTC, and each figure compares the daily percentage changes between those paired closes. Because Bitcoin keeps trading when Nasdaq is shut, a Monday's Bitcoin change covers the whole weekend. Returns are price changes only, with Meta's small dividend left out.
A reading of 1 would mean every move matched in direction and in proportion, while 0 means no link at all. The lower the reading, the more one asset can steady the other in a mix, which is the idea behind crypto portfolio correlation. Each big tech share has its own reading against Bitcoin, which is one more way to compare Meta or Amazon stock if you already hold crypto.
Why price charts suggest a much tighter link
Plotted on the same chart, Meta's price and Bitcoin's price look almost locked together over five years, with a score of 0.93 between their closing prices. The score for their daily changes over the same five years is 0.24.
The gap comes from what each number compares. Two assets that both rose over five years will show a high score for their price levels because both lines slope the same way. That holds even if their day-to-day moves have nothing to do with each other. A diversified holding depends on how the two behave on the same day, so the daily-change figure is the one that matters. A headline that calls Bitcoin "92% correlated" with the Nasdaq is much closer to the 0.93 price-level score than to the 0.24 daily-change score. Unless it was worked out from daily changes, it overstates how often the two actually move together.
Meta and Bitcoin returns and drawdowns
Meta stock beat Bitcoin over each period measured to the October 16, 2026 close. Meta rose 7.5% in 2026 while Bitcoin fell 6.9%, and over one year Meta slipped 0.4% while Bitcoin lost 24.7% (source: Yahoo Finance META history) (source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD history). Over five years Meta gained 118.4% and Bitcoin 32.3%, yet their worst falls were close in size.
Measure, to October 16, 2026 | Meta | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|
Change since December 31, 2025 | +7.5% | -6.9% |
Change over 1 year | -0.4% | -24.7% |
Change over 5 years | +118.4% | +32.3% |
Largest fall within the 5 years | -74.4% (November 15, 2021 to November 3, 2022) | -76.6% (November 8, 2021 to November 21, 2022) |
Largest fall in 2026 | -28.8% (January 29 to March 27) | -39.6% (January 14 to June 30) |
Distance below the record close | -10.2% (record August 12, 2025) | -34.7% (record October 6, 2025) |
The largest falls run from a peak close down to the lowest close that came after it (source: Yahoo Finance META history) (source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD history). Each one shows the worst loss a holder who bought at that peak would have sat through.
The 2022 falls are the clearest sign that a weak daily correlation can still mean a shared bad year. Both falls began within a week of each other in November 2021, and both hit bottom in November 2022. In that year the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and CME Group's research notes that Bitcoin's link with stocks tightened (source: CME Group).
Why Meta moves with Bitcoin at all
Meta and Bitcoin have no business link, so most of their shared movement comes through the wider market. Bitcoin's daily moves are tied to the Nasdaq-100, a tracker of the largest Nasdaq companies, and Meta is one of those companies. Over the past year that indirect route explains almost all of the link between them.
You can check this with beta, a measure of how far one asset tends to move when another moves 1%. It is also the measure that splits what moves Meta's stock price between the market and Meta itself. Here the market is QQQ, the Invesco fund built to follow the Nasdaq-100 (source: Yahoo Finance QQQ history).
Measure, daily changes to October 16, 2026 | 1 year | 5 years |
|---|---|---|
Bitcoin and QQQ correlation | 0.44 | 0.42 |
Meta and QQQ correlation | 0.39 | 0.65 |
QQQ move on a 1% Bitcoin day (beta) | 0.20% | 0.19% |
Meta move on a 1% QQQ day (beta) | 0.84% | 1.28% |
Meta move on a 1% Bitcoin day through the market (the two betas multiplied) | 0.17% | 0.24% |
Meta move on a 1% Bitcoin day, measured directly | 0.19% | 0.21% |
Meta's move through the market = QQQ's beta to Bitcoin × Meta's beta to QQQ.
Over one year that route predicts a 0.17% Meta move on a 1% Bitcoin day, against 0.19% measured directly, so the market accounts for nearly all of the link. The correlations multiply the same way: 0.44 times 0.39 gives 0.17, close to the measured 0.19.
That leaves little room for a Meta-specific tie to crypto. A study by CME Group found Bitcoin's daily link with the Nasdaq-100 rose from about zero before 2020 to 0.42 from 2020 to 2022. It points to a third factor behind both, such as more institutions holding crypto beside shares, and to Bitcoin being easy to sell when investors need to raise cash (source: CME Group).
Meta's own beta to the Nasdaq-100 also fell, from 1.28 over five years to 0.84 over the past year, and its correlation with QQQ dropped from 0.65 to 0.39. Most of Meta's daily moves in that year came from things specific to Meta rather than the wider market, and each step away from the market is also a step away from Bitcoin.
When the Meta and Bitcoin link breaks
The Meta and Bitcoin link shifts sharply from month to month. Over five years the 30-day reading ranged from -0.39 on December 4, 2024 to 0.77 on September 26, 2022, and it sat below zero on 19.4% of sessions. The 90-day reading stayed between -0.05 and 0.58.
Shorter windows swing more because a handful of large days can dominate them. At 2026's month-ends the 30-day reading switched between negative and positive five times, while the 90-day reading stayed between -0.01 and 0.28 (source: Yahoo Finance META history).
Month-end in 2026 | 30-day correlation | 90-day correlation |
|---|---|---|
January 30 | -0.24 | 0.03 |
February 27 | -0.05 | -0.01 |
March 31 | 0.63 | 0.17 |
April 30 | -0.02 | 0.26 |
May 29 | -0.28 | 0.28 |
June 30 | 0.26 | 0.16 |
July 31 | 0.13 | 0.18 |
August 31 | -0.03 | 0.16 |
September 30 | 0.41 | 0.19 |
October 16 | 0.51 | 0.21 |
In March 2026 both fell hard on two days running. On March 26 Meta dropped 8.0% and Bitcoin 3.5%, and on March 27 Meta lost 4.0% and Bitcoin 3.6% (source: Yahoo Finance META history) (source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD history). By the end of April the 30-day figure had fallen back below zero. The strongest year was 2022, when the 90-day reading averaged 0.37, against 0.11 in 2024.
CME's study found the same pattern for Bitcoin and the index: the link tends to tighten when markets are under stress and loosen when they calm down (source: CME Group). For a holder, that is the less comfortable half of the pattern, since the days when two assets fall together are the days when diversification is needed most.
What Bitcoin did on Meta's earnings days
Meta's results nights are where the link breaks most clearly. Meta publishes its results once Nasdaq closes at 4PM ET (8PM UTC), which leaves the reaction to the next session (source: Meta third-quarter 2026 notice) (source: SEC filing list for Meta). On the four results sessions of the past year, Meta moved 9.6% on average and Bitcoin 2.2% (source: Yahoo Finance META history).
Session after Meta's results | Meta | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|
October 30, 2025 | -11.3% | -1.6% |
January 29, 2026 | +10.4% | -5.2% |
April 30, 2026 | -8.6% | +0.7% |
July 30, 2026 | -8.0% | +1.3% |
Meta and Bitcoin moved in opposite directions on all three results sessions of 2026 (source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD history). Leaving the results sessions out of the past year lifts the yearly reading from 0.19 to 0.25, so a few of Meta's own big days pull the yearly figure down. For anyone trading Meta around earnings, Bitcoin's move on a results session has said little about Meta's.
September 21 and the October sell-off
The September jump in the Meta and Bitcoin link came from one session. On Monday, September 21, 2026, Meta's shares rose 11.3% on price, or 11.4% counting the 52.5-cent dividend that went ex that day, while Bitcoin rose 7.0% over the weekend-spanning session. The 30-day correlation went from -0.12 on September 18 to 0.51 by October 16.
The Next Web tied Meta's rise to investor enthusiasm for Muse, the personal AI agent Meta had launched earlier that month (source: The Next Web). The report says nothing about crypto, and Bitcoin had already climbed 5.9% on Friday, September 18, a day Meta fell 2.4%. The two big moves landed on the same date, and the report gives a cause only for Meta's.
Take that one session out and the 30-day reading to October 16 drops from 0.51 to 0.09 (source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD history). One strong day for Meta's Muse AI did most of the work, which is why a short-window reading is worth checking day by day before you rely on it.
The weeks after added real joint falls. On October 14 Meta fell 3.3%, Bitcoin 1.8% and QQQ 2.0%, and on October 16 Meta dropped 3.7%, Bitcoin 0.8% and QQQ 2.5%. Across the week from October 9 to October 16, Meta lost 1.3% and Bitcoin 1.3% while QQQ fell 5.5%.
Meta set its third-quarter 2026 results for after the Nasdaq close on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 (source: Meta third-quarter 2026 notice). The session after each report then sits inside the 30-day window for about a month, and that kind of day pulled the two apart three times in 2026.
Meta and Bitcoin volatility side by side
Meta stock has been about as volatile as Bitcoin over the past year. Its annualized volatility was 42.1% over the year to October 16, 2026, against 43.7% for Bitcoin on the same trading days (source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD history). Over the 21 sessions to October 16, Meta ran at 56.7% and Bitcoin at 37.6%.
This measure is the standard deviation of daily changes, a gauge of how far a typical day lands from the average day, scaled up to a full year. A 40% figure means a typical year's swing of about 40% either way, and the QQQ column gives the market's level for comparison (source: Yahoo Finance QQQ history).
Window to October 16, 2026 | Meta | Bitcoin | QQQ |
|---|---|---|---|
30 days | 56.7% | 37.6% | 18.0% |
90 days | 46.2% | 37.0% | 18.7% |
1 year | 42.1% | 43.7% | 19.8% |
5 years | 45.4% | 51.7% | 23.0% |
Bitcoin's figures use only the days Nasdaq was open. Counting all 365 days with a 365-day scale gives 44.2% over one year and 50.9% over five, so the result barely changes. On a rolling 30-day basis, Meta swung more than Bitcoin on 54.6% of the sessions in the past year.
Bitcoin swung more over five years, but over the past year the gap closed. Meta's results nights, with moves of about 8% to 11%, account for much of that, and those moves land on dates you can see coming. Leverage multiplies Meta's swings: the METAUSDT Perpetual offers up to 20x (source: BloFin METAUSDT contract details), and trading Meta with leverage shows how margin and liquidation work at each leverage level.
Weekends, when Bitcoin trades and Nasdaq is shut
Bitcoin trades every day, while Meta's shares trade only on weekdays, so every weekend Bitcoin moves first and Meta's Monday open answers later. Over the past year, Bitcoin's Friday-to-Sunday move and Meta's Monday opening gap scored 0.26 across 45 ordinary weekends.
The weekend link turns out to be stronger than the weekday one. Over the past year, the 45 Monday sessions that followed an ordinary Friday, which include the whole weekend for Bitcoin, scored 0.53. Sessions that followed another weekday scored 0.09 (source: Yahoo Finance META history). Over five years the Monday and other-session readings were much closer, at 0.26 and 0.25, so the stronger Monday link is a feature of the past year.
Size is where the two differ. Bitcoin's median Friday-to-Sunday move was 1.1%, against a median Monday gap of 0.8% for Meta, and the largest weekend of the year shows how loose the tie can be. Bitcoin fell 8.5% from Friday, January 30 to Sunday, February 1, 2026, and Meta opened on Monday just 0.3% below its Friday close.
On BloFin, Meta's price keeps moving through the weekend on the perpetual, whose index keeps updating while Nasdaq is shut, so Meta's price gaps when Nasdaq is closed reach a perpetual position before Monday's open. Over the weekend of October 17 and 18, the METAUSDT mark price read 719.13 USDT just after 5AM UTC on Monday, 1.4% above Meta's Friday close of $709.33 (source: BloFin METAUSDT contract details). Bitcoin was 1.5% above its own Friday close at 4.54AM UTC (source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD history).
You can watch Meta's price on BloFin through a weekend on the METAUSDT Perpetual page, which shows the mark and index price moving on Saturday and Sunday. BloFin may accept only orders that reduce a position on the perpetual outside the Nasdaq session, including on weekends (source: BloFin stock futures notice). You can close or shrink a position over the weekend, but opening a new one may have to wait for Monday's session. The token itself trades on the METAX/USDT Spot page 24 hours a day on weekdays.
Does Meta hold Bitcoin?
Meta's quarterly report for the June 2026 quarter lists no Bitcoin among its holdings (source: Meta 10-Q for the second quarter of 2026). At the May 28, 2025 annual meeting, a proposal for the board to assess adding Bitcoin to Meta's treasury drew 3,916,871 votes for and 4,980,828,562 against, about 0.08% support (source: Meta 8-K for the 2025 annual meeting).
The proposal came from Ethan Peck on behalf of a family trust. It argued that cash loses value to inflation and asked Meta to weigh swapping "even just a few percent" of its cash and bonds for Bitcoin. The board recommended voting against it. It said its treasury goals are "to preserve capital and provide liquidity" and that it already reviews many kinds of assets, including how volatile they are (source: Meta 2025 proxy statement).
The vote counts are votes, not shares. Each Meta Class B share has ten votes and each Class A share has one, and on April 1, 2025 the Class B shares held a majority of the combined voting power (source: Meta 2025 proxy statement). The 0.08% figure is a share of votes cast, which weights each Class B share ten times.
The same quarterly report shows where Meta's spare cash sits instead. On June 30, 2026 it held $15.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $74.8 billion in marketable securities, $90.3 billion in all. Of the securities, $41.7 billion were US government bonds and $28.6 billion corporate bonds, and the filing names no crypto asset of any kind (source: Meta 10-Q for the second quarter of 2026).
So Meta's share carries no direct exposure to the coin's price, and whatever link it has to Bitcoin comes through the market, as the betas show.
Meta in a crypto-heavy portfolio
A weak link lowers the swings of a mix even when both assets swing a lot. On the past year's figures, a holding that is 90% Bitcoin and 10% Meta would have had volatility of 40.3%, against 43.7% for Bitcoin alone. A 50/50 split comes to 33.1% (source: Yahoo Finance META history).
Mix volatility = √(Bitcoin weight² × Bitcoin volatility² + Meta weight² × Meta volatility² + 2 × both weights × both volatilities × correlation).
Mix, past year to October 16, 2026 | Volatility at the measured 0.19 correlation | At a correlation of 0 | At a correlation of 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
100% Bitcoin | 43.7% | 43.7% | 43.7% |
90% Bitcoin, 10% Meta | 40.3% | 39.5% | 43.5% |
75% Bitcoin, 25% Meta | 36.3% | 34.4% | 43.3% |
50% Bitcoin, 50% Meta | 33.1% | 30.3% | 42.9% |
The link matters more than either asset's own swings. At a correlation of 1, even a 50/50 split swings almost as much as Bitcoin alone. The gain from adding Meta shrinks as the link grows, and the past month's 0.51 reading sits about halfway to that case. The mix figures assume the weights are reset every day; a holding left alone drifts toward whichever asset has risen most.
Bitcoin's worst days give a direct view of what Meta did when crypto fell hardest. On Bitcoin's 10 worst sessions of the past year it fell 6.5% on average, while Meta was close to flat, ending 0.03% higher on average and lower on eight of the ten. On February 5, 2026, Bitcoin's worst session, it fell 14.1% while Meta rose 0.2% (source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD history).
The reverse also holds, because Meta's single worst session of the year was its results reaction on October 30, 2025, when Bitcoin fell far less. Adding Meta trades one kind of risk for another, from crypto-wide sell-offs to Meta's own results and its spending plans, the same risks that decide whether Meta stock is a good investment. That exposure can be held as the token or traded through the contract, and METAX and the Meta perpetual differ in cost, trading hours and risk.
Looking to hold Meta in the same account as your crypto? To get started, you'll need to first create a BloFin account, fund your account with cryptocurrency, and go to the METAX/USDT Spot trading page or the METAUSDT Perpetual trading page.
Frequently asked questions
How closely does Bitcoin follow the US stock market?
Bitcoin's daily correlation with QQQ, the fund that tracks the Nasdaq-100, was 0.67 over the 21 sessions to October 16, 2026 and 0.37 over 63 sessions (source: Yahoo Finance QQQ history). Both readings are higher than Meta's own link to Bitcoin over the same windows. Over a longer span, CME Group's study of daily returns measured 0.20 for Bitcoin against both the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500 from January 2014 to April 2025, and 0.30 from 2023 to April 2025 (source: CME Group). With the two index figures so close, the study found that Bitcoin's tie runs to stocks in general rather than to one index.
What does a correlation of 0.2 mean in practice?
A correlation of 0.2 means the two assets move the same way a little more often than chance would suggest. Over the year to October 16, 2026, Meta and Bitcoin both rose on 72 sessions, both fell on 77 and split on 102 of 251. So they matched on 59.4% of days (source: Yahoo Finance META history). Knowing Bitcoin's move tells you little about the size of Meta's.
Do Meta and Bitcoin fall together in a crash?
They have in the broad sell-offs, though less tightly than Bitcoin and the stock market. CME Group measured a 0.69 correlation for Bitcoin with US stock indexes from November 2021 to December 2022, when Bitcoin lost three-quarters of its value and the Nasdaq-100 38% (source: CME Group). Over the same months, Meta and Bitcoin's daily link was 0.35 (source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD history). Both fell hard while still splitting on many single days.
How has Meta moved on Bitcoin's best days?
On Bitcoin's 10 best sessions of the past year it rose 6.9% on average, and Meta rose on seven of them. Meta's average gain on those sessions was 1.6%, but most of that comes from September 21, 2026, and without that session the average is 0.5% (source: Yahoo Finance META history). On February 6, 2026, Bitcoin's best session, it climbed 12.5% while Meta fell 1.3% (source: Yahoo Finance BTC-USD history).
Do Meta and Bitcoin move together more over weeks or months?
Over the five years to October 16, 2026, Meta's and Bitcoin's weekly changes, from each week's last close to the next, scored 0.12 (source: Yahoo Finance META history). That is about half the 0.24 for daily changes. Their monthly changes over the 60 months to September 30, 2026 scored 0.30, and the two moved the same way in 36 of those months. The score depends on how long each measured change is, as well as on how many changes the window holds.
Researched and written by the BloFin Academy editorial team with AI-assisted drafting. All facts independently verified. Primary sources include Meta's 8-K for its 2025 annual meeting, its 2025 proxy statement and its second-quarter 2026 10-Q, Meta's results filings and third-quarter 2026 notice, Yahoo Finance daily price history for Meta, Bitcoin and QQQ, BloFin's METAUSDT contract details and stock futures notice, and CME Group's research on Bitcoin and equities. News sources include The Next Web, current as of October 21, 2026.
Nothing in this article constitutes financial advice, and nothing in it is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold Meta or Bitcoin in any form. The correlation between the two has swung from negative to positive and back within a few months, so a mix that looked diversified last quarter can fall as one asset in the next sell-off. Meta's share has also moved 8% to 11% in a single session after its results, and on the METAUSDT Perpetual a move that size against a leveraged position can wipe out its margin. Past performance does not indicate future results. Do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before you trade on BloFin.