Once a month, at 8.30AM Eastern time, the US government publishes a report on how much Americans earned, how much they spent and how fast the prices they paid went up. The stock market is still an hour from opening when it lands, but bitcoin, stock index futures and bond yields are already trading, and they react within seconds.
Most of the attention goes to one number buried in that report. It is the inflation rate the US central bank uses to define its 2% goal. A reading that comes in hotter or cooler than traders expected can change what they think the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates next.
The report also reaches you with a delay that confuses many beginners. It usually lands near the end of the month after the one it covers, about two weeks after the better-known consumer price index for the same month. Its past figures can also be rewritten months or even years later.
That report is the PCE report. The next one, covering September 2026, comes out on October 29, 2026, the morning after the Fed's October decision.
What is the PCE report?
The PCE report is the US Bureau of Economic Analysis's monthly release on personal income and spending, best known for the PCE price index inside it. That index tracks the prices paid for goods and services by people living in the US, or by others on their behalf, and its yearly change is the inflation rate the Fed targets.
PCE stands for personal consumption expenditures, which is the government's name for consumer spending. The release's official title is Personal Income and Outlays. It reports two related things that are easy to mix up: how many dollars people spent in the month, and how much the prices of what they bought changed (source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, PCE price index). Traders who say "PCE came in hot" almost always mean the price index.
The monthly report is the one markets trade. The same price data also appears every quarter inside the gross domestic product (GDP) release, and in 2026 the two have usually come out on the same morning. Because the index follows what people actually buy, it picks up changes in behavior: if beef gets expensive and shoppers switch to chicken, the index reflects the switch (source: BEA, what to know about prices and inflation).
What is core PCE?
Core PCE is the PCE price index with food and energy taken out. Those two categories swing up and down more sharply and more often than other prices, so removing them makes the underlying trend easier to see. The Fed watches the core figure closely when it sets policy (source: BEA, core PCE price index).
The full index is called headline PCE. Headline is the official measure behind the 2% goal, while core shows the underlying trend more clearly, so most coverage reports both. In August 2026, headline PCE rose 3.4% from a year earlier and core rose 3.0% (source: BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026).
Each figure comes in two forms. The month-on-month change compares this month's prices with last month's, and the year-on-year change compares them with the same month a year earlier. The monthly number is the fresher signal but a noisy one, while the yearly number is smoother but includes eleven months the market already knew about.
Monthly changes look tiny until you turn them into a yearly rate. Prices rising 0.165% a month add up to about 2% over twelve months, which is the Fed's goal. August 2026's monthly core reading was published as 0.2%, but it was 0.25% before rounding (source: Morningstar). Repeated every month, 0.25% works out to about 3% a year, because 1.0025 multiplied by itself twelve times is about 1.030. That is why traders care about a difference of a tenth of a point in a monthly figure.
PCE vs CPI: What is the difference?
PCE and the consumer price index (CPI) both measure consumer inflation, but they come from different agencies. CPI comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and tracks what urban households pay out of their own pockets. PCE comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and covers more spending, including costs that others pay on your behalf.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis lists four sources of difference. They are the formula, the weights given to each item, the scope of what is covered, and smaller technical details such as seasonal adjustment (source: BEA, CPI and PCE reconciliation). Scope is the easiest to picture. PCE counts health insurance your employer pays for and medical care paid for by government programs, which never show up as out-of-pocket spending in the CPI (source: BEA, NIPA Handbook, chapter 5).
Measure | CPI | PCE price index |
|---|---|---|
Published by | Bureau of Labor Statistics | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
Whose spending | Urban households, out of pocket | All households and nonprofits serving them, including spending paid on their behalf |
Where the weights come from | A survey of households | Surveys of businesses |
Formula | Laspeyres, a fixed basket | Fisher-Ideal, which adjusts as people switch between products |
When it comes out | Around the middle of the following month | Around the end of the following month |
Past figures revised | Unadjusted figures stay fixed | Yes, sometimes years back |
August 2026, headline and core | 3.4% and 2.4% | 3.4% and 3.0% |
The two are closely linked. For most spending categories, the Bureau of Economic Analysis builds PCE from the same price data the CPI collects, then weights and combines it differently (source: BEA, NIPA Handbook, chapter 5). So by the time PCE arrives, most of its price inputs are already public. PCE has one drawback: it can be revised heavily, while the unadjusted CPI never is, which is why inflation-protected Treasury bonds are tied to the CPI (source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, consumer price data). How bitcoin compares with fiat inflation sets the CPI beside other inflation measures and tests bitcoin against each one.
How the PCE and CPI gap looks in 2026
CPI inflation has often run higher than PCE inflation. Between early 2002 and mid-2007, CPI rose about 0.4 percentage point a year faster. The Bureau of Economic Analysis traced almost half of that gap to the formula, and the rest to differences in weights, mainly the heavier weight of rent in the CPI (source: BEA, CPI and PCE reconciliation).
In 2026 the gap has turned the other way for core inflation. In August, headline PCE and headline CPI were level at 3.4%, while core PCE was 3.0% against core CPI at 2.4% (source: BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026; Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI for August 2026). Core PCE, as first reported each month by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, has been above the Bureau of Labor Statistics' core CPI in every month of 2026 so far, by between 0.5 and 0.8 percentage point. So the rule of thumb that PCE runs below CPI, repeated in many explainers, does not hold for 2026.
Why the Fed targets PCE inflation
The Fed's 2% inflation goal is written in terms of the PCE price index. Its Statement on Longer-Run Goals says that inflation of 2%, "as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures", best fits the Fed's mandate of maximum employment and stable prices (source: Federal Reserve, Statement on Longer-Run Goals).
The Fed last reaffirmed that statement in January 2026 (source: Federal Reserve, Statement on Longer-Run Goals). It says it uses PCE mainly because it covers a wide range of household spending, and that it also tracks the CPI and producer prices (source: Federal Reserve, FAQ on inflation measures). The switch happened in stages. The Fed moved away from the CPI informally in 2000, when a footnote in Chair Alan Greenspan's testimony to Congress noted the change. It made PCE official in 2012, alongside its 2% target (source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta).
The Fed also writes its own inflation forecasts in PCE terms. Four times a year, a summary of officials' projections for headline and core PCE inflation is published alongside the decision from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's rate-setting body. The FOMC meeting guide covers how those meetings run. In September 2026, the median projection for 2026 was 3.7% for headline PCE and 3.4% for core, measured from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026 (source: Federal Reserve, September 2026 projections). Those projections came out two weeks before the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its 2026 figures lower, so they are not directly comparable with the revised monthly readings.
A PCE reading moves markets through what it says about the Fed's next step. A hot core reading makes a rate hike look more likely, and a cool one makes it look less likely, which feeds into bond yields, the dollar and the price of riskier assets. How Fed rate hikes affect bitcoin follows that chain from interest rates to the bitcoin price.
When does the PCE report come out?
The PCE report comes out once a month at 8.30AM Eastern time, usually in the last week of the month, and covers the month before. In UTC that is 12.30PM while US daylight saving time is in force and 1.30PM in winter.
Every PCE report in 2026 so far came out at the same time as a GDP estimate. The exception was a catch-up release on January 22 at 10AM ET, 90 minutes after that day's GDP report (source: BEA, 2026 release schedule). The schedule keeps that pairing for the rest of 2026 (source: BEA, 2026 release schedule) and through early 2027 (source: BEA, 2027 release schedule). That means two reports hit the market in the same minute, and a big surprise in GDP can move prices as much as the inflation figures.
Release date | Month covered | Time (ET) | Time (UTC) | GDP report the same morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
October 29, 2026 | September 2026 | 8.30AM | 12.30PM | Third quarter 2026, first estimate |
November 25, 2026 | October 2026 | 8.30AM | 1.30PM | Third quarter 2026, second estimate |
December 23, 2026 | November 2026 | 8.30AM | 1.30PM | Third quarter 2026, third estimate |
January 28, 2027 | December 2026 | 8.30AM | 1.30PM | Fourth quarter 2026, first estimate |
The CPI for the same month usually comes first, about two weeks earlier. September's CPI came out on October 14, 2026 and September's PCE follows on October 29.
When is the next PCE report?
The next PCE report comes out on Thursday, October 29, 2026, at 8.30AM ET (12.30PM UTC), covering September (source: BEA, 2026 release schedule). It shares the slot with the first estimate of third-quarter GDP. It also lands the morning after the Fed announces its October decision at 2PM ET on October 28, so the Fed decides with September's CPI in hand but not September's PCE.
The last reading, for August, showed headline PCE up 0.3% on the month and 3.4% on the year, and core up 0.2% and 3.0% (source: BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026). September's CPI has since come in hot. Prices rose 0.6% in the month and 3.7% from a year earlier, with gasoline up 9.1% in September alone, while core CPI rose 2.6% (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI for September 2026).
On October 23, 2026, the Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast, a model estimate the bank updates as new price data arrive, put September's PCE inflation at 3.60% from a year earlier and core PCE at 3.05% (source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, inflation nowcasting). The bank notes that its nowcasts are not always accurate, so treat the figure as one estimate until the report itself arrives.
How to read a PCE report, step by step
A PCE report is short once you know where to look. The Bureau of Economic Analysis puts the main figures in the first few paragraphs of its news release. Read them in this order, from the number markets react to first through to the details that explain it.
Step 1: Open the release on the Bureau of Economic Analysis website at 8.30AM ET. It is titled Personal Income and Outlays plus the month it covers, and the summary paragraphs at the top carry every figure in the next five steps.
Step 2: Find the yearly change in the PCE price index and in the index "excluding food and energy". These are the headline and core inflation rates. In the August 2026 report they were 3.4% and 3.0%.
Step 3: Find the monthly changes for the same two indexes. Core month-on-month is the number traders watch most closely, because it shows the latest trend without the past year's history mixed in. In August 2026 it was 0.2%.
Step 4: Compare each figure with what was expected. Expectations differ by provider. Before the August report, the Dow Jones consensus cited by CNBC put core at 0.3% for the month and 3.3% for the year (source: CNBC). The FactSet consensus cited by Morningstar had 3.4% for the yearly core rate (source: Morningstar). So use the forecast your own economic calendar shows, and check a second provider before calling a 0.1-point miss a surprise, because the forecasts themselves can differ by that much.
Step 5: Check whether earlier months were revised. The release shows the previous month again, and a lower figure for it can make the new reading look softer than it is.
Step 6: Read the income and spending lines. In August 2026, personal income rose 0.2%, spending rose 0.9%, and the saving rate, the share of after-tax income people did not spend, was 4.1% (source: BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026). Strong spending alongside hot prices points to demand that is still running high.
Why PCE numbers get revised
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revises PCE figures as better data arrive, and once a year it reworks several years at once. The August 2026 report, published on September 30, carried that annual update, with revisions going back to January 2021 (source: BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026).
The update changed the picture traders thought they knew. July's inflation was first reported at 3.7% headline and 3.3% core (source: BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026). After the update, the same month reads 3.4% and 3.0% for core (source: BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026). The update also brought new methods for measuring the prices of legal services, computer software and accessories, and portfolio management (source: BEA, 2026 annual update). So when you compare a new PCE reading with an old one, check that both come from the same version of the data.
How bitcoin and stocks react to the PCE report
A PCE release day has looked much like any other day for US stocks. On 411 PCE release days since 1993, the median move in SPY, an S&P 500 index fund, was 0.55%, against 0.53% on all trading days. PCE days were also no more likely than other days to rank among the biggest movers (source: The Trading Tools).
Bitcoin trades through the release, so its first reaction shows up before US stocks open at 9.30AM ET. On BloFin's BTCUSDT Perpetual, the 2026 PCE mornings at 8.30AM ET looked like this.
Release date | Inflation as first reported (headline, core) | BTC change by 9AM ET | BTC change by 10.30AM ET | BTC range in the 2 hours | Usual range for those 2 hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
February 20 | 2.9%, 3.0% | −0.58% | +0.37% | 2.53% | 1.96% |
March 13 | 2.8%, 3.1% | +0.50% | +1.82% | 2.19% | 2.17% |
April 9 | 2.8%, 3.0% | +0.04% | −0.86% | 1.18% | 1.42% |
April 30 | 3.5%, 3.2% | −0.04% | +0.02% | 0.77% | 1.21% |
May 28 | 3.8%, 3.3% | +0.20% | −0.56% | 1.34% | 1.10% |
June 25 | 4.1%, 3.4% | +0.23% | −2.91% | 6.00% | 1.37% |
July 30 | 3.7%, 3.3% | +0.06% | −0.16% | 0.86% | 1.27% |
August 26 | 3.7%, 3.3% | −0.49% | −0.59% | 1.01% | 1.00% |
September 30 | 3.4%, 3.0% | +1.61% | −0.24% | 2.38% | 1.41% |
Changes are measured from the price at 8.30AM ET. The range is the gap between the highest and lowest price in the two hours after the release, as a share of the 8.30AM price. The usual range is the median two-hour range at the same time of day over the 20 weekdays before each release. Inflation figures come from each month's Bureau of Economic Analysis release.
Three patterns stand out. Bitcoin's two-hour range beat its usual range on six of the nine mornings, so the release window tends to be busier than an average morning. On five of the nine, though, bitcoin moved less than 0.25% in the first 30 minutes. And the largest moves often came later. On June 25, after the hottest reading of the year, bitcoin was up 0.23% at 9AM ET. The fall began once US stocks opened at 9.30AM, leaving it 2.91% lower by 10.30AM ET.
September 30 shows how quickly a first move can fade. The softer-than-expected August reading, released together with large downward revisions, lifted bitcoin 1.61% in the first half hour, and all of that gain was gone by 10.30AM ET. A GDP estimate also landed at 8.30AM on every one of these mornings, and the stock-market open falls inside the two hours, so none of these moves can be pinned on PCE alone. To watch the next release as it happens, open the BTCUSDT Perpetual chart on the 15-minute timeframe a few minutes before 8.30AM ET.
How to trade a PCE morning on BloFin
On a PCE morning you know the minute the numbers arrive but not the numbers, so settle your position size and your exit before 8.30AM ET. BloFin's crypto perpetuals trade 24 hours a day, so the BTCUSDT Perpetual is fully open when the report lands, an hour before US stocks start trading.
BloFin's stock perpetuals keep to the US stock market's regular session, 9.30AM to 4PM ET: that is 1.30PM to 8PM UTC while daylight saving time is in force, and 2.30PM to 9PM UTC in winter. Before or after that session, trading in them may be limited to reduce-only orders, which can only shrink or close a position (source: BloFin, stock futures trading hours). A PCE report at 8.30AM ET arrives an hour before that window opens, so on the SPYUSDT Perpetual and the QQQUSDT Perpetual you may only be able to reduce a position until 9.30AM ET. Plan any stock-perpetual trade around the open.
Every stock, fund and commodity with a perpetual on BloFin is listed in TradFi assets you can trade on BloFin.
Size the position from the 2026 PCE mornings themselves. Bitcoin's two-hour range after the release ran from 0.77% to 6% across the nine, with a middle value of 1.34%, so size for the 6% morning, not the typical one. Say you are willing to lose 15 USDT on the release: a position of about 250 USDT keeps a 6% move against you to about 15 USDT, because 6% of 250 is 15. At 10x that position needs 25 USDT of margin, and the same 6% move takes 60% of it; how liquidation works explains what happens when losses reach your maintenance margin.
A stop-loss limits a steady slide, but a fast move can jump past it, and the order then fills at the next available price. The risk lasts well past 8.30AM. On June 25, bitcoin stayed within about 1% of its 8.30AM price for the first hour. Then it fell to almost 5% below it in the half hour after US stocks opened at 9.30AM ET. How to set a stop-loss on BloFin shows how to place one, and trading news volatility covers sitting out the first move until it settles.
The same planning applies to every scheduled release. Event risk in crypto sets out a routine for CPI, FOMC and other event days, while trading gold around FOMC and CPI releases covers the gold market.
BloFin's copy trading covers the BTCUSDT, SPYUSDT and QQQUSDT Perpetuals, so on a data morning you can also follow a lead trader you choose, with a cap you set on how much each one can use. How to copy trade on BloFin walks through the setup.
Looking to trade the next PCE report? To get started, you'll need to first create a BloFin account, fund your account with cryptocurrency, and navigate to the BTCUSDT Perpetual, SPYUSDT Perpetual or QQQUSDT Perpetual page, or browse the lead traders you can copy on BloFin.
Frequently asked questions
What is real PCE?
Real PCE is consumer spending with the effect of price changes taken out, so it shows how much more people actually bought. In August 2026, spending rose 0.9% in dollars and 0.6% after adjusting for prices, so about a third of the increase came from higher prices and the rest from buying more (source: BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026).
Who publishes the PCE report?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of the US Department of Commerce, publishes the PCE report. It also produces the GDP figures, and the two releases usually come out on the same morning. The CPI comes from a different agency, the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Department of Labor.
Does the PCE report include GDP?
The monthly PCE report and the GDP report are separate releases, although in 2026 they usually come out at the same moment. The PCE report carries monthly income, spending and price figures, while the GDP report carries quarterly figures for the whole economy, including a quarterly version of the PCE price index.
What time is the PCE report released in UTC?
The PCE report comes out at 8.30AM US Eastern time, so its UTC time moves with US daylight saving time. It lands at 12.30PM UTC from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November and at 1.30PM UTC in winter. In 2026 daylight saving time ends on November 1, so the October 29 release comes out at 12.30PM UTC and the November 25 release at 1.30PM UTC.
What is market-based PCE?
Market-based PCE is a supplementary version of the PCE price index that keeps only spending with prices you can see in a market, mainly those measured by consumer and producer price indexes. It leaves out most estimated prices, such as the value of banking services provided without an explicit fee, and the spending of nonprofit institutions (source: BEA, NIPA glossary).
What is the Fed's inflation target?
The Fed aims for inflation of 2% a year over the longer run, measured by the yearly change in the headline PCE price index. To judge progress, officials look at average inflation over periods from a few months to a year or longer, and at its subcategories, so one hot or cool month rarely decides policy on its own (source: Federal Reserve, FAQ on inflation measures).
Researched and written by the BloFin Academy editorial team with AI-assisted drafting. All facts independently verified. Sources include the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Cleveland, CNBC, Morningstar, The Trading Tools and BloFin, current as of October 26, 2026.
Nothing in this article constitutes financial advice, and nothing in it is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold bitcoin, any stock fund or any other instrument. Prices can jump within seconds of an 8.30AM ET data release, so a stop-loss can fill well past its trigger, and a leveraged position can be liquidated and lose all the margin behind it. Stock perpetuals may accept only reduce-only orders before US regular trading hours, so you may not be able to open a new position when the report lands. BloFin services are not available in restricted locations, including the United States. Past performance does not indicate future results. Do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before you trade on BloFin.