#Insights
Whale's Tracking - AirdropAs investors, we approach President Trump's proposal to distribute $2,000 "dividends" or "tariff rebate cheques" using tariff revenues with caution. This suggestion was announced via Truth Social in November 2025, aiming to return tariff proceeds directly to most Americans and partially alleviate national debt. In the aftermath of the government shutdown and amid persistent inflation pressures, this plan appears to offer short-term economic stimulus. However, from a rational perspective, its potential impacts require comprehensive consideration, encompassing both positive aspects and challenges, as well as broader economic implications.
11/13/2025Whale's Tracking - The Blinded FedWe are about to usher in another round of FOMC meetings and a "super central bank week." In the coming days, almost all of the world's most important central banks (Fed, ECB, BOJ) will announce their interest rate decisions, with the FOMC meeting's decision being of paramount importance. However, due to the government shutdown, the Federal Reserve is unable to obtain the latest employment and inflation data, and ADP's suspension of providing employment data to the Fed has made the situation worse, virtually rendering the Fed "blind." In the absence of data, the decisions and outlook the Fed will make deserve close attention from investors.
10/29/2025Whale's Market Outlook: The Second Half of the Bull MarketIt looks like the bull market has entered its second half.
10/24/2025Whale's Methodology: The Inevitable LiquidationThe "unprecedented" large-scale liquidation was actually foreshadowed a few months ago.
10/17/2025Whale's Tracking - The Night Before SettlementLess than 48 hours remain until the 2025Q3 crypto derivatives settlement. While the market has been expectedly calm during this period, gold and silver have repeatedly reached new all-time highs, while US stocks have also reached new records. In this context, the narrative divergence between offshore and onshore markets has made the crypto market's calmness superficial, with underlying turmoil surging.
09/25/2025Whale's Insight: Altcoin ETF Floodgates Are OpeningThis week’s edition highlights new infrastructure reshaping digital assets, from the SEC opening the door to a wave of altcoin ETFs, to Google enabling stablecoin payments between AI agents, to Plasma launching with $2B in liquidity to power stablecoin settlement.
09/19/2025Whale's Tradingview: How to Trade "Forced Rate Cuts Regardless of CPI"?Unlike interest rate adjustments based on "economic fundamentals," the intervention of "administrative pressure" significantly weakens or even negates the effect of interest rate adjustments on CPI. Furthermore, administrative pressure makes the sustainability of interest rate adjustments questionable. In this context, speculative positions in dollar-linked markets may be the primary focus, while reducing dollar exposure within broader portfolio allocations may be a better option.
09/15/2025Whale's Tracking - No More Long-Term BullishDespite the Federal Reserve's September rate cut being a certainty and investors betting on further cuts this year, the crypto derivatives market has yet to show a positive bullish outlook. Instead, bearish sentiment on BTC has permeated all maturities, with current long-term bearishness only surpassing that seen during the depths of the 2022 bear market. The end of the easing cycles in Europe and Japan may be a key factor, while the risk of recession and even stagflation in North America may also be a key reason for investor caution.
09/11/2025Whale's Tradingview: Potential Long-term Debt CrisisDue to doubts about the sustainability of government debt, investors are seeking higher yields on long-term Treasury bonds as compensation. While the increase in government debt burdens is within expectations, the long-term impact of high long-term government bond yields on borrowing and investment deserves more attention.
09/06/2025Whale's Tracking - Precious Metals RevivalSeptember is typically a month of significant market volatility. Along with the release of a series of macroeconomic data, central banks worldwide, led by the Fed, will set the tone for monetary policy for at least the next 6 months. Against this backdrop, the rise in gold and silver prices is no accident. Besides risk aversion, concerns about US monetary policy have prompted investors and non-US central banks to choose precious metals over US Treasuries simultaneously, while data suggest this shift is likely to be long-lasting.
09/03/2025Более