Bitcoin's sharp fall is following the four-year cycle's depth, slope, and timing; the selling from ETFs and Strategy and the mega-IPO liquidity drain are this cycle's triggers, but the decline is on schedule.
Gold’s 27% correction reflects an unwind of rate-sensitive positioning, not a breakdown of the structural bull case. Real rates still drive short-term price action, but fiscal dominance limits how far rates can rise. The next repricing begins when markets recognize that the Fed’s real-rate ceiling is binding.
Bitcoin has fallen to its 200-week moving average, the line that has marked past cycle bottoms, yet several signals suggest the floor may not be in. Meanwhile capital is leaving crypto just as SpaceX's record IPO may pull even more attention away from risk assets. Is this the dip to buy, or will BTC keep grinding lower?
